Pub Quizzes have now gained a potential for controversy. More than the whiners pleading for greater volume or the danger of taking it far too seriously , now there are dangerous questions. How many countries are there in the world? Answer; it depends on who you believe or how much you believe in the inviability of nationhood.  Try answering that on a sticky table with a knackered Biro and a damp piece of paper.

The answer is either 193 or 192. You should have heard, or become bored by mentions that the former Serbian province of Kosovo has declared itself an independent nation. More accurately it has declared independence, and written 192 letters asking other countries to recognize this and ratify this. A move that has been received with a mixed response, and will I believe have a profound effect upon the future.

For those of you who remember a program where a man declared his flat was going to be an independent nation within Britain, or harbour dreams of world conquest or creating Monaco like tax shelters, its not actually as easy as this. There is a cultural history, a demographic imperative and the unsettled post war negotiations that allow them to do this. Not liking to pay tax, or having a punch up with a foreign neighbour is not enough. Kosovo was subject to the ethnic cleansing efforts of the Serbian nationalist party under Slobodan Milosevic and the civil war that surrounded it. The majority of its inhabitants are in fact ethnically Albanian, which they share a border with to the south.

All of which might seem like eminent reasons that this should be welcomed in a region still recovering from the disintegration of Yugoslavia and war. But there are many concerns in this act. For example the Serbian People consider Kosovo to be part of the their heartland, and see the ethnic Albanians as usurpers, and the provincial government acted on its own with out putting the question to the people of Serbia at large. I have to admit as an outsider neither of these strikes me as a valid reason. The claim of historical dominance is at best shaky. The Serbian people settled in the Balkan region in the 7th century and conquered Kosovo in the 13th. They ruled for under 3 centuries before the Ottoman empire took the whole region. As to the lack of democratic process, one can well understand why this was not achieved. Serbians were highly unlikely to agree.

There are other reason to not recognize Kosovo. This act if supported sets a precedent globally that might provoke other provinces to declare independence, and it is not hard to think of examples. The Catalan region in Spain has long produced agitators for independence, Russia is dealing with three potential cases: Chechnya, Abkhazia and South Ossetia (the latter two in Georgia). Britain has experience here too with the troubles in Northern Ireland. Even Wales and Cornwall have separatist movements of small stature. The potential for future discord is great, though perhaps not good reason to deny the residents of Kosovo a separate existence.

Then of course there is the danger of future strife. The NATO commander in the region has already affirmed their forces (KFor as it is known and it comprises around 17,000 troops) will remain in the region to fulfill peacekeeping duties. That being said local terrorist groups are probably a sad inevitability. Then in the Balkans at large there is conflict over the issue with other nations at odds on the issue. Finally there is the danger that the Slavic Bear will cause greater conflict between Europe and Russia, the tension already being headily palpable.

Kosovo has become a potential flashpoint of  great magnitude, and it is vain to wish that greater caution had been observed by the provincial government. For all of the above I find it difficult to pick a side. Rather I find myself recognizing the nation and pitying them for it. Their country has enormous problems with organized crime and corruption, their wealth per person is 5% of the European average with unemployment at over 40%. On top of that, it is unlikely that Russia and China will support them in the UN, both wielding vetoes and combating various separatist entities. Serbia will use all of it diplomatic clout (probably not massive, but greater the Kosovo’s) to see that it fails. The young nation has an almost impossible road ahead of it.

But there’s hope for the pub quiz: Are the residents Kosovan, Kosovon or Kosovar? Answers on a postcard.